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Coronavirus Facts vs. Fear

Coronavirus Facts vs. FearCoronavirus - Actual Risk of Death by Age from the CDC

"Follow the Science!", the media screams! "Wearing a mask protects all of us!". 8 months into the "pandemic", some of these admonitions are starting to wear thin on many people's patience. Many people don't know a single person who has died, been hospitalized or even been seriously ill from Coronavirus, COVID-19, the novel Coronavirus or whatever you want to call it. People say openly now that this seems like politics are driving fear and these requirements. Donald Trump, who the mass media tells us is elderly and "clinically obese" walked out of Walter Reed Hospital with no assistance and looking strong a mere 3 days after being diagnosed with COVID-19. But don't take our word for it; see the video of the president walking out of Walter Reed Hospital for yourself here.

Here's what CNN said on October 2, 2020:

(CNN)President Donald Trump, who says he and first lady Melania Trump have tested positive for coronavirus, has several risk factors for more severe Covid-19 symptoms.
He is in a high-risk group simply by virtue of his age -- he is 74 -- and his weight. Trump is clinically obese, and obesity is a risk factor for a more severe form of the illness.
According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, people in the 65-74 age range face a five times greater risk of hospitalization and a 90 times greater risk of death from Covid-19 compared to young adults between the ages of 18-29.

CNN's hatred for the president shows plainly in the manner in which the present the facts... out of context. .Read further:

Based on his physical in April, CNN reported in June that President Trump weighed 244 pounds and is 6 feet 3 inches tall. That gives him a body mass index of 30.5, making him technically, if mildly, obese. Obesity triples the risk of hospitalization from Covid-19, according to the CDC.

Anyone who works out regularly and particularly those who lift weights, know how laughable the BMI can be. So, is pushing the limits of credulity to call Trump obese without knowing what his actual, measure percent body fat is, and what his lean muscle mass is.

So, what are the facts? How do we know they are facts? Coronavirus - odds of infection scenarios

Here's what we know today. Be sure to look at the sources of the data cited below. Keep in mind just how many times the source has flip-flopped, reversed it's position or been simply wrong in the recent past. We used to believe that the CDC was an impeccable government agency with nothing but apolitical scientists. But recently, their constant flip flops and mistakes have caused us to be suspicious of their pronouncements.

Unfortunately, this is the only hard data we can find. Point being, who will you believe, a government agency or news media that has a political axe to grind... or your own lying eyes?

That said... here's what the so-called experts tell us:

What are your odds of getting Coronavirus

The CDC tells us wearing a mask, washing your hands often and staying 6 feet apart reduces the risk of becoming infected with Coronavirus. See the CDC website here and the table at right.

So, what are the statistical odds of becoming infected with Coronavirus in various scenarios? Let's say you do wash your hands, stay 6 feet apart... but don't wear a mask?

It is difficult to know. See the CDC chart at right. First off, the tests just aren't that accurate. Common sense substantiates some of the chart. For example, simply staying 6 ft or more apart from people has the largest effect in reducing your risk of contracting Coronavirus.

Washing hands is similar. Consistently wearing a mask is about the same. But we don't know how

How accurate are coronavirus tests?

There are three types of tests;

  • a viral test (that checks if you are currently infected with COVID-19). These come in two forms:
    • Polymerise chain reaction, or PCR, tests, which look for genetic components of the virus;
    • Antigen tests, which look for protein components;
  • an antibody test (that checks if you had a Coronavirus infection in the past).

The Mayo Clinic says:

The timing and type of antibody test affects accuracy. If you have testing too early in the course of infection, when the immune response is still building up in your body, the test may not detect antibodies. So antibody testing is not recommended until at least 14 days after the onset of symptoms. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized and verified certain antibody tests, but tests with questionable accuracy are still on the market.

This subject is complex enough to warrant a separate discussion: see Accuracy of Coronavirus Tests.

The time it takes to process these tests can vary. You can visit your state or local health department's website to look for the latest local information on testing. If you hstate or localave symptoms of COVID-19 and want to get tested, call your healthcare provider first.

What are your odds of dying from Coronavirus?

Keep in mind, this is a constantly changing number, almost always going downwards, as detection and treatments improve over time. As of September 2020 the

CDC COVID-19 Survival Rates are

Age 0-19 - 99.997%
Age 20-49 - 99.98%
Age 50-69 - 99.5%
Age 70+ - 94.6%

Those are the statistical odds that you will survive a Coronavirus infection IF you get it, right on the CDC website. .

The key takeaway is obviously that people under the age of 50 in good health with no serious underlying health conditions have VERY LITTLE TO FEAR!

Even the elderly stand a small chance of dying from Coronavirus - the CDC's own COVID-19 stats show that 94.6% will survive it.

And you can bet that the vast majority of those who do die, at any, have 2 or more underlying substantial health issues. See this page.

Obviously, this also tells us that children ought to be going to school in person!!Diabetes and c oronavirus The paranoia must end.

Underlying Health Conditions (a.k.a, Comorbidities)

Of course, if you are already sick, unhealthy, a smoker, substantially overweight, have heart or respiratory issues, diabetes, etc., well, surprise, surprise, yes, risk of becoming seriously ill or dying from Coronavirus goes up substantially! Who knew we that living an unhealthy lifestyle might have adverse consequence? Oh, yes, we ALL knew that! Maybe now, you might want to do something about it and join those people you previously called "gym rats". They were the smart ones all along!

The CDC has admitted that their coronavirus-only fatality numbers are greatly inflated. They published an update that says that only 6% of COVID-19 deaths are due solely to the virus and that in the other 94% cases 1 or more serious underlying health conditions were present. The press is spinning this many ways, but the bottom line is, if you are essentially health and do NOT have something like heart disease, diabetes, COPD, pneumonia, etc, that your odds of dying from Coronavirus are miniscule. See a news story here: As US coronavirus death toll mounts, so does the belief by some that it is exaggerated.

See this page on the CDC for all comorbidities, facts and numbers.

Over-reporting, inflated Coronavirus numbers?

There are many, many reports in the press of inflated Coronavirus death numbers. It started with Dr. Birx statement that she advised that all fatalities in which Coronavirus infection was suspected, even without a testing to confirm it, be labeled a Coronavirus fatality. Then we learned by the CDC's own admission that 94.6% of all deaths labeled as Coronavirus had multiple underlying health conditions, Only about 6% of the deaths were due solely to Coronavirus. We still have no facts to tell us how sick or close to death the other 94% were prior to being infected with Coronavirus.

The CDC, Dr. Birx, et al, instructed that :

In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID-19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as "probable" or "presumed." In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID-19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID-19 should be conducted whenever possible.

This obviously also leads to over-counting COVID as a cause of death. By how much, we can't know as yet, but obviously, the regular seasonal flu would have similar symptoms to COVID-19, yet this year, deaths attributed to the flu are unrealistically low.

The final data on flu season 2019/2020 has been reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as COVID-19 continues to spread throughout the United States.

Between October 1, 2019 and April 4, 2020, the flu resulted in:

  • 39 to 56 million illnesses
  • 410,000 to 740,000 hospitalizations
  • 24,000 to 62,000 deaths
  • 169 pediatric deaths

Think about that for one moment, as many as 62,000 flu deaths, and 200,000 COVID deaths. Meanwhile, we suspect that flu deaths are being under-reported while Coronavirus deaths are being OVER-reported. It is entirely possible, that in a few years, we will find out that the true numbers were closer to equally spread between COVID and flu. Time will tell.

What does this all mean?

This page on the CDC website provides a variety of numbers related to the deaths from Coronavirus. This is a snapshot in time. As of September 28, 2020, the CDC reports there were 191,451 fatalities in the United States attributed to COVID-19. During that time, there were 2,061,145 deaths in the United States.

That means that COVID-19 was 9.3% of all deaths in the United States during the time.

The population of the United States is approximately 328 million. This means that the risk of dying from COVID-19 is about .058% Put another way, you have a likely survival rate (for the whole, U.S. average population) of 99.94%

Of course, lower age groups and healthier people have an even lower risk of dying from it.

It seems like much of the hysteria over Coronavirus will magically disappear aver the election in November.

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The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming

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